POLITICAL CONTEXT OF HIGH RISK FOR GOVERNMENT AMID THE PARLIAMENT’S VOTE

USPA NEWS - The French Parliament, in the lower house, is under tension, for weeks, now, and tomorrow Wednesday, a mixed parity commission composed of seven deputies and seven senators, will discuss the concluding text of the pension reform which was voted in favor of the senate last Friday before midnight (195 votes against 112 ). Thursday, March 16, the final vote will take place in the National Assembly by the deputies.It would take an absolute majority, ie at least 289 votes (ie > 50% of 577 seats in the National Assembly), for the pension reform to pass and be adopted. However, so far only 220 certain votes have been mobilized by the party with the presidential majority. PM Elisabeth Borne, has shifted today to the National Assembly that she has an absolute majority. It is one of a kind momentum of highest risk for the current Government led by PM Elisabeth Borne, who might risk her position, at Matignon' office, if only a motion of censure triggered against the government by the opposition, is voted

POLITICAL CONTEXT OF HIGH RISK FOR GOVERNMENT AMID THE PARLIAMENT’S VOTE The French Parliament, in the lower house, is under tension, for weeks, now, and tomorrow Wednesday, a mixed parity commission composed of seven deputies and seven senators, will discuss the concluding text of the pension reform which was voted in favor of the senate last Friday before midnight (195 votes against 112 ). Thursday, March 16, the final vote will take place in the National Assembly by the deputies.It would take an absolute majority, ie at least 289 votes (ie > 50% of 577 seats in the National Assembly), for the pension reform to pass and be adopted. However, so far only 220 certain votes have been mobilized by the party with the presidential majority. PM Elisabeth Borne, has shifted today to the National Assembly that she has an absolute majority.However, it would seem that many since Republicans, (22/61 say that they will not vote for this law, and 19/61 are uncertain…). The deputies of the left (LFI, 76 deputies) announce to file a motion of censure, against the government in the event of 49.3 constitutional device which allows to pass the text in force, without taking into account the vote. Ditto for the RN party of Marine Le Pen (89 deputies), and even the LIOT party (Free Independent and Overseas and Territories, which are represented by 20 deputies).The situation is therefore very risky for the current government, because if it ever appeals to article 49.3 of the constitution, the opposition threatens to table a cross-partisan motion of censure (10% of the seats are enough, ie 58 votes) to table this motion and block the government which should resign by this constitutional defiance.

PM ELISABETH BORNE REPEATED 12 TIMES "A MAJORITY EXISTS" AT THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY
PM Elisabeth Borne hammered today at the National Assembly to defend her pension reform (which caused the various demonstrations on January 19th and a current blockage of the country by a general strike, transport, energy, garbage collectors, etc.) by repeating "A majority exists, which thinks that it is necessary to increase the small pensions, and to reduce the inequalities between the woman and the men and is not afraid of the reforms even when it unpopular and to assume disagreements tomorrow."..as if a mantra.
She repeated this expression "the majority exists" twelve times, in the National Assembly, affirming her confidence in her ability to muster a majority of at least 289 votes, by Thursday.

Meanwhile, many of the Republican MP's whose PM Borne was relying on to boost her majority, have already announced they will not vote the pension reform, ahead of the D Day...This might make more co0plicated than expected, from the government, which does not hold an absolute majority, at the National Assembly.

The inter-union union, having renewed the strike last Saturday and is organizing a new demonstration movement tomorrow March 15, 2023. To this are added target blockages in the nerve centers for the supply of electricity and fuel.